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Which leagues finish above their chances?

Goals scored against goals expected. Above one means a league puts away more than the quality of its chances suggests; below one, less.

Primeira Liga (Portugal) finishes best: 1,11 goals for every one its chances were worth.

Which leagues finish above their chances?
LeagueGoals per expected goalExpected goals
1. Primeira Liga Portugal 1.11 78.729
2. Campeonato Turco de Futebol Turquia 1.09 97.355
3. Championship Inglaterra 1.09 135.245
4. Eredivisie Países Baixos 1.07 92.563
5. Campeonato Alemão de Futebol Alemanha 1.05 93.869
6. Major League Soccer Estados Unidos 1.05 137.192
7. Premier League Inglaterra 1.04 119.635
8. Campeonato Italiano de Futebol - Série A Itália 1.03 95.948
9. Super League China 1.01 33.970
10. La Liga Espanha 1.01 99.785
11. Serie A Brasil 1.01 93.954
12. Jupiler Pro League Bélgica 0.995 87.051
13. Campeonato Romeno de Futebol Romênia 0.984 63.201
14. Campeonato Polonês de Futebol Polônia 0.983 65.888
15. Campeonato Norueguês de Futebol Noruega 0.976 47.011
16. Campeonato Sueco de Futebol Suécia 0.976 36.083
17. Ligue 1 França 0.972 84.938
18. Campeonato Dinamarquês de Futebol Dinamarca 0.964 31.236
19. HNL Croácia 0.957 28.855
20. Swiss Super League Suíça 0.944 54.669

Showing the major competitions. Include every competition

Expected goals are recorded for far fewer matches than anything else here — recent seasons in the larger leagues — so this list is shorter and younger than the rest.

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