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Which leagues finish above their chances?

Goals scored against goals expected. Above one means a league puts away more than the quality of its chances suggests; below one, less.

Primeira Liga (Portugal) finishes best: 1,07 goals for every one its chances were worth.

Which leagues finish above their chances?
LeagueGoals per expected goalExpected goals
1. Primeira Liga Portugal 1.07 242.440
2. Eredivisie Países Baixos 1.06 286.774
3. Campeonato Turco de Futebol Turquia 1.05 282.384
4. Campeonato Alemão de Futebol Alemanha 1.05 336.770
5. Major League Soccer Estados Unidos 1.04 483.093
6. Championship Inglaterra 1.03 431.635
7. Serie A Brasil 1.02 295.211
8. Super League China 1.01 176.529
9. Campeonato Italiano de Futebol - Série A Itália 1.01 343.413
10. Campeonato Dinamarquês de Futebol Dinamarca 1 143.408
11. Premier League Inglaterra 1 403.875
12. La Liga Espanha 0.998 368.619
13. Campeonato Norueguês de Futebol Noruega 0.991 198.974
14. Swiss Super League Suíça 0.974 186.288
15. Ligue 1 França 0.97 328.261
16. Campeonato Sueco de Futebol Suécia 0.963 160.473
17. Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina 0.957 161.410
18. Campeonato Polonês de Futebol Polônia 0.957 221.076
19. Jupiler Pro League Bélgica 0.955 283.258
20. Campeonato Romeno de Futebol Romênia 0.951 207.355

Showing the major competitions. Include every competition

Expected goals are recorded for far fewer matches than anything else here — recent seasons in the larger leagues — so this list is shorter and younger than the rest.

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