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Which leagues finish above their chances?

Goals scored against goals expected. Above one means a league puts away more than the quality of its chances suggests; below one, less.

Primeira Liga (Portugal) finishes best: 1,11 goals for every one its chances were worth.

Which leagues finish above their chances?
LeagueGoals per expected goalExpected goals
1. Primeira Liga Portugal 1.11 78.729
2. Liga Super Turki Turki 1.09 97.355
3. Championship Inggris 1.09 135.245
4. Eredivisie Belanda 1.07 92.563
5. Fußball-Bundesliga Jerman 1.05 93.869
6. Liga Utama Sepak Bola Amerika Serikat Amerika Serikat 1.05 137.192
7. Liga Utama Inggris Inggris 1.04 119.635
8. Serie A Italia 1.03 95.948
9. Super League Tiongkok 1.01 33.970
10. LaLiga Spanyol 1.01 99.785
11. Serie A Brasil 1.01 93.954
12. Liga Profesional Belgia Belgia 0.995 87.051
13. Liga I Rumania 0.984 63.201
14. Ekstraklasa Polandia 0.983 65.888
15. Liga Utama Norwegia Norwegia 0.976 47.011
16. Allsvenskan Swedia 0.976 36.083
17. Ligue 1 Prancis 0.972 84.938
18. Liga Super Denmark Denmark 0.964 31.236
19. HNL Kroasia 0.957 28.855
20. Liga Super Swiss Swiss 0.944 54.669

Showing the major competitions. Include every competition

Expected goals are recorded for far fewer matches than anything else here — recent seasons in the larger leagues — so this list is shorter and younger than the rest.

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