Where do favourites fall most often?
Share of matches with a clear favourite that the favourite lost. A draw is not a fall here — only a defeat.
Favourites fall most often in HNL (Croatia): they lost 36.7% of the matches they were expected to win.
| League | Favourite lost | Matches with a favourite |
|---|---|---|
| 1. HNL Croatia | 36.7% | 30 |
| 2. Superliga Denmark | 36.7% | 30 |
| 3. Jupiler Pro League Belgium | 36.4% | 44 |
| 4. Liga MX Mexico | 34.7% | 75 |
| 5. Ligue 2 France | 33.9% | 59 |
| 6. Bundesliga Germany | 33.3% | 57 |
| 7. 2. Bundesliga Germany | 32.7% | 55 |
| 8. Eliteserien Norway | 32.6% | 46 |
| 9. Premier League England | 32.2% | 59 |
| 10. Ekstraklasa Poland | 32.1% | 56 |
| 11. Premiership Scotland | 30.8% | 39 |
| 12. K League 1 South Korea | 30.4% | 46 |
| 13. Major League Soccer United States | 29.6% | 152 |
| 14. Primeira Liga Portugal | 29.2% | 48 |
| 15. Serie B Italy | 29% | 69 |
| 16. Segunda División Spain | 27.8% | 79 |
| 17. Süper Lig Türkiye | 25.9% | 54 |
| 18. Super League 1 Greece | 25.6% | 39 |
| 19. Premier League Russia | 25% | 48 |
| 20. Championship England | 24.3% | 107 |
Showing the major competitions. Include every competition
The favourite comes from the pre-match forecast recorded before kick-off, and a match counts only when one side was at least 20 points ahead on its chances, so evenly matched games are left out. The score after 90 minutes decides, only matches played since we began storing forecasts can be measured, and a league needs 20 such matches to be ranked. No probabilities appear on this page.