Which result was the least expected?

Finished matches ranked by how unlikely that result looked before kick-off. A draw counts too: a surprise does not have to be an underdog winning.

Arsenal W 0:0 Crystal Palace W — the least expected result we have measured.

Showing every competition. Major competitions only

Expectation before kick-off is the median across every source that quoted the match, normalised so the three outcomes add up to one; no prices appear on this page, only an index of ours, in which each halving of a result's likelihood adds 25. A match quoted by fewer than three sources is skipped, postponed and abandoned games never count, the score after 90 minutes decides, and only matches played since we began storing expectations can be measured at all.